S. American leaders hope diplomacy can save Bolivia

South American presidents are racing to prevent a deeper political crisis in
Bolivia, where President Evo Morales has accused right-wing opponents of trying
to topple him, but diplomacy may not be enough to avert more deadly
protests.

Regional leaders will gather in the Chilean capital Santiago on Monday,
hoping to repeat a diplomatic success scored in March when they coaxed Andean
nations away from armed conflict that would have pitted Colombia, a U.S. ally,
against Venezuela and Ecuador.

At that time, like now, the United States, which has seen its influence in
Latin America wane because of President George W. Bush’’s war on terrorism and
the rise of leftist leaders in the region, was not at the negotiating table.

Other regional heavyweights, especially Brazil, are stepping in to fill the
void. And virtually all South American leaders, be they left-wing or
conservative, have rallied around Morales, Bolivia’’s first indigenous
president.

The Bolivian government said on Sunday that Morales would fly to Santiago for
the meeting with the leaders of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador,
Uruguay and Venezuela.

“A civil war in Bolivia would be terrible not just for Bolivia but for the
region. It would would affect the national security of many countries,” said
Ricardo Israel, a professor of international relations in Chile.

“Expectations are too high. The only thing the leaders can do is encourage
both sides in Bolivia to negotiate, and it’’s not clear they will agree to do
that.”

TESTING TIMES

Bolivia, a volatile country in the center of South America, has suffered
chaos in the past week during clashes between supporters of Morales and
right-wing governors who want more autonomy. About 30 people have died.

The summit will be a test of the nascent South American Union of Nations, or
Unasur, a 12-member group created in May. Its key members participated in a
Group of Rio summit in March that quickly ended the Andean crisis.

Both groups are seen as alternatives to the U.S.-dominated Organization of
American States, or OAS.

In an unusual move, right-wing governors opposed to Morales” plans for deep
socialist reforms demanded a seat at the table in Santiago with regional heads
of state, though their plea could be denied.

The leaders may have their hands full just trying to craft a diplomatic
response that pleases everybody.

Brazil, which depends on natural gas imports from Bolivia, is keenly worried
about energy security, while Venezuela’’s Hugo Chavez, a close ally of Morales,
has entered a loud diplomatic dispute with Washington.

Chavez expelled the U.S. ambassador on Thursday — after Morales threw out
the American ambassador in La Paz and accused him of fomenting protests against
his leftist government.

Washington, in retaliation, sent home diplomats from the two countries and
imposed sanctions on Venezuelan officials it accused of helping Colombian rebels
smuggle drugs.

“The Unasur leaders are in somewhat of a trap. On the one hand, they want to
show their support to a democratic, unified and stable Bolivia. On the other,
they need to distance themselves from Chavez’’s personal feud with the U.S.,”
said Patricio Navia, a political scientist at New York University. (Reuters)

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